【I Want To Be The First Guy】

It seems like everything you see online these days is I Want To Be The First Guya recession indicator. A new White Chicksmovie? An addition to the Scary Moviefranchise? Blondes going brunette? Screenshots with "fail" stamped on top? According to the internet, these are all recession indicators.

But are we actually in a recession? And can an increase in Y2K content predict one? Or are we just doomposting?

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Real recession indicators

There are actual, measurable recession indicators, of course. According to Morningstar, an investment research and management services firm, these include:

• Inflation

• Stock market decline

• Credit spreads

• An inverted yield curve

• A decrease in real GDP

• High unemployment

• A decline in business spending

• Investors flocking to gold

• Decreased home sales and housing prices

But then there are the internet-defined recession indicators — things that feel like a throwback to another era of economic distress:

• Men posting their partners on Valentine’s Day

• Zooey Deschanel with a Bumpit

• The popularization of content focused on becoming skinny

• That outfit

• Taylor Lautner

• Good pop music

• Anti-tattoo sentiment

• The revival of twee ukulele music

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What do these have in common?

They all hark back to the early aughts — the last time the U.S. faced a full economic recession. This trend of linking any Y2K revival to a recession makes sense. After all, it's easier for us to see the connection of Zooey Deschanel with a Bumpit to economic hardship than it is to fully understand how real GDP affects us. These comparisons may seem reminiscent from the so-called lipstick index — the theory that, during an economic crisis, consumers are more likely to splurge on inexpensive luxury items, like lipstick, rather than big-ticket items, like diamond necklaces. Sounds reasonable enough, right?

But as The Economistpointed out in 2009, there’s no clear correlation between lipstick sales and economic distress. Take another popular theory, the "stripper index" — which suggests that a dip in stripper tips or fewer high-income visitors signals a recession. The validity of that indicator is also up for debate. So, while these nostalgic trends may seem to point to economic downturns, they may not necessarily be a sign of one.

Waiting for a recession

Every year, it seems like we’re anxiously anticipating a recession, since economic downturns tend to occur every decade or so. But we didn’t get one in 2023, and we didn't see one in 2024 — and if JP Morgan's 35 percent recession probability is rooted in truth, we might not see one this year either.

"Even with the pace of growth slowing, the economy remains fairly robust, and it still looks like companies are positioned to grow earnings at double-digit levels in 2025 and 2026," Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategy director with U.S. Bank Asset Management, said in a press release dated Jan. 31, 2025.

So, while the return of Lady Gaga's dance-pop music or models eating burgers in bikinis in Super Bowl ads might not indicate that we're ushering in a recession, they do reflect a collective anxiety about the economy. Cultural trends like these appear out of nowhere; they're often shaped by our current economic and political realities.

As creator Caitlyn Clark explained in a TikTok video, which has garnered more than 13,000 views, there's a connection between the resurgence of dance music in 2024 (think: Charli XCX's culture-shifting album Brat) and the collective dissociation people felt after the pandemic's economic impact. It's an interesting correlation that highlights how our cultural output via memes and trends often mirrors economic and social shifts.

While we aren't currently in a recession, that doesn't mean it doesn't feel like it. The wealth gap is widening and racial wealth divide remains. The cost of living has surged while wages have remained stagnant. Over the past 30 years, the wealthiest Americans have seen their net worth soar, while the poorest have plunged into "negative wealth" — where their debts outweigh their assets, according to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research. As NBC reports, the average age of homebuyers in 2024 was 56 years old — a record high.

We might not be in a recession, and most of the recession indicator jokes are just that — jokes. But we still can't afford to buy eggs. It's no wonder we're all posting through it.